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Analysis of the energy development of major markets

Analysis of the energy development of major markets

2022-12-11

(I)  Europe:

Major suppliers in the European market include component manufacturers, inverter manufacturers, battery manufacturers. At present, all the marketing is carried out through the original channel suppliers/dealers. Judging from the current competitive landscape, inverter manufacturers have a bigger discourse power in the market. In order to improve their influence on the terminal market, some inverter manufacturers are pushing the all-in-one machine. The whole market is mainly promoted by dealers, who will provide quality assurance services and training for installers. However, installers generally do not limit their cooperation to only one supplier. In Europe, the brand premium of suppliers exists, but the brand barrier has not been completely established.

German household storage accounts for about 70% of the European market. Germany's power system is mature, and the security and stability of the power grid and power supply reliability have not been negatively affected in the process of energy transformation. However, for some reason, residential electricity prices are high, and the main market is household storage systems within 30kwh.

The main new energy in the UK is offshore wind power. The main market for energy storage is the pre-sheet market, while the post-sheet market is relatively small due to low electricity prices, high value-added tax on household reserves and weak subsidy policies. The roof capacity of the UK is not large, and the household storage system is generally within 10kwh, so the market is highly dependent on the brand.

Italy's power generation structure is dominated by natural gas, and solar and wind power have been developing rapidly this year. However, due to the lack of natural gas, Italy is more dependent on energy imports, and the domestic power generation capacity cannot meet the demand, and residential electricity costs are high. Italy is introducing an incentive policy for home storage, the market potential is larger.

The rapid growth of electricity prices in Austria is driving the rapid growth of the household storage market, which is expected to overtake the UK and Italy to become the third-largest household storage market in Europe by 2025 at the current installed rate.

(II)  America:

According to the U.S. energy storage monitor released by Wood Mackenzie, the installed energy storage capacity in the U.S. will reach 3.51GW/10.5GWh in 2021, quadrupling from the previous year. In the United States, user-side energy storage can be divided into residential and non-residential. Non-residential energy storage includes industrial and commercial energy storage and other scenarios.

It is expected that the total newly installed capacity of energy storage in the United States will reach 63.4GW/202.5GWh during 2021-2026, among which the installed capacity of household energy storage will reach 4.9GW/14.3GWh.

The leading supplier of household storage in the US market is Tesla, which has launched three generations of household storage products so far. The first generation Powerwall, with a small 6.4kwh battery capacity, was not suitable for the main American home scene. The second generation Powerwall 2 more than doubles the battery capacity of the previous generation and includes a battery charger. The third generation Powerwall+ (plus), integrated with the inverter, makes an all-in-one machine.

Tesla's total energy storage sales in 2021 were 3.99GWh, up 32% year on year. Due to production capacity constraints, Tesla prioritizes the supply of lithium batteries to electric vehicles, and energy storage shipments are affected by battery production constraints, affecting the overall sales volume.

More than 250,000 Powerwall systems have been installed worldwide, and it is expected to ship 100,000 units per year as capacity ramps up.

(III)  Australia

The main player in Australia's pre-table market is the National Power Company. Australia's power grid is weak, and it has been affected by extreme weather such as frequent forest fires and storms in recent years, so it needs to build new energy storage to increase the stability and security of the power system and the interconnection between the power grids of various states. The mature power spot market brings a large peak-valley difference in wholesale electricity price, and the mature national power auxiliary service market brings a high economy. Combined with the subsidy policy and preferential financing policy at the national level, the market economy is remarkable. After the table, the main demand of the market is to ensure the safety of electricity, the high price of electricity for residents and the subsidy policies of the states for household storage, and the demand of the residents for self-use.


Analysis of the main market economy and development trend

From the perspective of end users, in addition to photovoltaic modules, batteries, and inverters, users also need to pay license examination fees, period fees, marketing costs and other costs when installing household energy storage systems.

Although lithium battery accounts for a relatively high proportion of household energy storage systems, overseas installation, channel marketing and other expenses are high, and the cost of lithium battery accounts for between 10%-25% of the entire energy storage hardware cost. In household energy storage systems with different capacities, the larger the capacity, the smaller the unit cost of installation.

From the technical point of view, there are three main models on the market: split machine, stacked machine and all-in-one machine. The market development is relatively rapid all-in-one machine, including Tesla, green tech and other companies are pushing the all-in-one machine. But it will take some time for all-in-one machines to gain market acceptance, and dealers prefer to purchase them separately to reduce costs. Installers also tend to buy separately because all-in-ones require retraining and customers in the capacity market are less willing to switch. However, from the perspective of market trends, the sales trend of all-in-one machines is obvious in Europe (mainly Germany) and North America.

In addition, the Chinese market has not yet started up, but in the future, with the development of distributed energy driving the transformation of energy structure, and the whole supply chain of the domestic household storage market is relatively complete, the Chinese household storage market will gradually become a subdivision circuit in the medium and long term.

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