More than two-thirds of Europe's lithium-ion battery production plants are at risk of delays, downsizing or cancellation, mainly because of the negative impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act on the European market, according to a study by the European Federation for Transport and the Environment.
The study found that about 68 percent of planned battery production plants in Europe face these risks. Europe is likely to lose much of its market to the US as companies investing and operating in the US consider taking advantage of incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, which came into effect on January 1st .
The study, titled "How Not to Lose Everything," confirms rumors reported in the industry press earlier this year that some companies embarking on Gigafactory projects in Europe might shift investments.
Of the 1.8TWh lithium-ion battery capacity planned for 2030, the study classifies 16% (288GWh) as "high risk," 52% (936GWh) as medium risk, and the remaining 32% (576MWh) as low risk. The following chart is a breakdown of the risks of planned battery factories across the EU.
The study doesn't define each category, but says it's based on calculations that include:
· Guaranteed funds.
· Secure location.
· Construction status and permit.
· Investment from European OEM factories or support from EU institutions.
· Projects already planned in the United States.
· Cooperate with US OEM factories.
The projects at high risk, it said, were gigafactory plants that had not yet secured financing or permits, had not yet started work, had not yet secured an offtake or even, in some cases, had not yet selected the battery chemistry, as they could be canceled altogether.
"The simplicity, volume, and financing availability of production credits for battery, module, and component manufacturing and metal processing make the United States a highly attractive destination for battery factory construction," the study said.
The study identified a Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin and Northvolt's Italvolt battery production plant near Turin as most likely to be affected. Northvolt said its planned Delet gigafactory in Heideltown, Germany, was at risk of being delayed because of high energy prices at the end of last year.
One analyst said all battery production projects in Europe would be delayed to some extent.
The study also assessed individual project risks, assessing how risky each project was. Here's a graph of risk:
Risk assessment of the production capacity of individual battery production plants in Europe by 2030
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